2024 - A SEISMIC YEAR FOR DEMOCRACY
2024 is already shaping up to be the year of "Gen AI" (generative artificial intelligence) But it is also a seismic year for democracy, with general elections in the world's largest democracy, India and the world's oldest democracy, The United States.
There’s also a good chance of elections closer to home in Ireland and the UK and there will be EU Parliament elections in June.
There have already been elections in the world’s 4th and 5th most populated countries, Indonesia and Pakistan. All in all, by the end of 2024 nearly 3 billion people will have gone to the polls.
This is coinciding with a time when, on a macro level, the world is becoming an ever more tumultuous place:
“In total, 61 countries saw a significant decline in their social progress in 2023 and 77 more stagnated. Only 32 countries saw any real progress. This downturn marks the world's first social progress recession in the past decade, primarily attributed to declines in Health, Rights, Voice, and Information & Communications.” - Socialprogress.org
https://www.socialprogress.org/2024-social-progress-index/
FROM FIERY MILITARY STRONGMAN TO CUDDLY, FUN TIKTOK SUPERSTAR...
TikTok and politics is something we have written about before. But the recent general election in Indonesia, and the role that TikTok has played in it, was not necessarily where we saw this story going when we penned it nearly two years ago! Yet, in a country where 50% of the electorate is aged between 17 and 40, social media was always likely to play a central role.
In a plot twist worthy of True Detective, Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, a former general who was dismissed from the military amid allegations he was involved in human rights violations like kidnapping and torture, transformed his image using TikTok. This is a platform used by a generation that doesn’t remember the brutal military repression of the Suharto regime, of which “cute” Prabowo was a part.
Dancing and cuddling his cat, his followers termed his campaign “Gemoy” or “cute”. His followers even created animated avatars of him using AI and this cartoon version became one of the enduring images of the election.
It was not just a novel approach - it was an extremely successful one, contributing to the enormous lead Prabowo has amassed in the preliminary counts. And, although the counting continues at the time of writing, Prabowo is pacing at more than double the amount of votes of his nearest rival, way over-indexing even those numbers, with 66% of the share of vote of 17-25 year olds and 60% of the vote of 26-33 year olds.
“If humans don't continue to be discerning and thoughtful when making critical decisions like electing their governments, then we do have something to fear indeed.”
Cormac (24), The Love Network
But it’s not just military strongmen who are joining TikTok. Even the President of the United States has joined, a man who signed a bill in 2022 prohibiting the use of TikTok on devices owned by federal employees, an action taken due to national security concerns related to TikTok’s Chinese ownership and the potential for data privacy issues.
But Biden (or at least his team) has taken to the platform reasonably well. The first video was a quiz style video ahead of the Super Bowl. With the exception of this decent come back at Jimmy Fallon’s mocking of Biden on TikTok most of the content has been attack videos against Trump using news and press conference clips. It’s unlikely that Biden’s TikTok gambit will be as successful as Prabowo’s unless his team seriously up their game.
It’s not like Democracy is at stake here…
BUT TIKTOK IS NOT THE ONLY TECHNOLOGY THAT IS LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN THIS YEAR OF YEARS FOR ELECTIONS AI - particularly in the form of deepfakes - is already making its impact felt. In the January New Hampshire Presidential Primaries a ‘robocall’ (a phone call that uses a computerized autodialer to deliver a pre-recorded message, as if from a robot) made headlines as it mimicked the voice of Joe Biden. Using his tone, syntax, accent and catchphrases the receiver heard this short message. It’s unlikely that many were caught out but nonetheless it serves as a chilling harbinger of the onslaught of fake content that is likely to swamp the November US election. "The AI deepfake situation in elections is a definite concern, it is and could continue to be used to manipulate public opinion through deception. I feel like there should be some sort of technological solution or legal policy for content created through AI. Gotta safeguard that democratic integrity worldwide, you know?" |
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